After the Midterm Rebuke, Trump Could Woo North Korea Again — but Kim May Not Answer, Analysts Tell Reuters
President Donald Trump is likely to turn to Asia and to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as he seeks foreign-policy successes in his final two years, analysts and officials in Asia told Reuters — but with Pyongyang's arsenal bigger, its ties to Moscow and Beijing stronger, and a Democratic Congress ahead, Kim has little incentive to answer.
The rebuke President Donald Trump suffered in the midterm elections could prompt him to step up efforts to re-engage North Korea, Reuters reported, as analysts and officials in Asia expect him to focus on foreign policy to build his legacy in the final two years of his term. With efforts to resolve the wars in Ukraine and Iran yet to produce breakthroughs, he is likely to turn to Asia, where he believes he has room to manoeuvre — and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, with whom Trump has been eager to restart talks, is likely to be a key part of that effort, they say.
"Trump is likely to devote significant effort to achieving foreign policy successes, especially if he faces greater constraints on the domestic front," said Ban Kil-joo, an international relations professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy in Seoul, in the Reuters report. "Given Trump would want a successor to win in 2028, there is a strong possibility that engagement with North Korea would be part of that agenda." Asked about Trump's diplomacy plans, White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly told Reuters his foreign policy decisions "have never been motivated by politics" and that he has restored American strength on the global stage.
But there is little incentive at the moment for Kim to respond, analysts say. Trump met Kim three times during his first term, after a war of words that raised fears of military conflict, but their 2019 summit ended without agreement on North Korea's nuclear weapons programme and sanctions relief. Seven years later the stakes are higher: North Korea has expanded its nuclear and missile arsenal — including hypersonic glide vehicles, a growing fleet of modern warships and submarines, and improved drone capabilities — while Pyongyang's ties with Russia and China are the best in years. U.S. and South Korean officials see fading chances of a meeting this year, with Washington receiving no response from Pyongyang ahead of a regional summit in China this month where they might have met, and Kim's sister Kim Yo Jong has said dialogue remains a path to peace but Pyongyang sees no need for talks now.
The price of a summit is the problem. Kim has previously said he was open to talks if Washington stopped insisting his country give up nuclear weapons — a concession regional allies South Korea and Japan oppose. "A summit that shelves denuclearisation would undermine deterrence and create policy friction among Washington, Seoul and Tokyo," said Leif-Eric Easley of Ewha Womans University. Professor Kazuhiro Maeshima of Sophia University warned that accepting North Korea's nuclear status would change Asia's security environment dramatically — "the biggest change since World War Two." And a Democratic-controlled Congress could block the concessions a deal would need: as Yonsei professor Moon Chung-in put it, if North Korea thinks Trump has entered a lame-duck period and cannot get support from Congress, "there's no reason for Kim Jong Un to come to dialogue." Former Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun, who led the first-term negotiations, agreed Pyongyang currently has "very little upside" in a meeting.
